American experts: results of Mueller investigation may delay new sanctions. The Bell, 25 March 2019
Although Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller Report on the results of the "Russia investigation" acquitted Donald Trump, it confirmed allegations of Russia's interference in American elections. But American sanctions experts told the Bell that Russia would enjoy positive consequences: adoption of the new sanctions acts by the US Congress is likely to be delayed. The market seems to agree with them: the rouble strengthened to the dollar by 60 kopecks in Sunday news, despite the analysts' skepticism.
The draft law DASKA Act 2019 by senators Bob Menendez and Lindsey Graham is the main threat to Russia: it suggests that sanctions should be imposed against the state banks and the state debt, and it is a menace to the billion-dollar gas projects. The bill has been waiting since it was submitted to the Congress. Atlantic Council expert Anders Åslund who took part in working out of the "Kremlin list", told The Bell that the DASKA Act's future would depend on the further actions of Russia, and Trump towards Russia.
Åslund thinks that the completion of the Mueller investigation has put a query about the Congress' unanimity on the sanctions matter. "The main consequence of the Barr's [Attorney General] letter is the increase of misunderstanding between the Republicans and the Democrats: the first are indignant about the secrecy around the report, the second consider Trump to be fully rehabilitated." Åslund thinks that the House of Representatives, where the Democrats enjoy the majority, will insist on tough anti-Russian sanctions, but the reaction of the Senate, with the Republicans in dominance, is unpredictable, and will depend on the actions of Russia .
Another member of the Atlantic Council, the former employee of the US OFAC Brayan O'Tul is sure that new sanctions may be imposed only as a result of a new provocation by the Kremlin (it may be connected with the reaction on the elections in the Ukraine), or a gross mistake made by Trump (e.g. if he decides to recognize the annexation of the Crimea by Russia). There is another variant – if the Congress finds new information about Russia's interference in full Mueller Report, but this is improbable.
An employee of a big lobbying company connected with the sanctions issue in the Congress, prefers to remain anonymous, and doesn't share the experts' optimism. He told The Bell that the DASKA Bill was still supported by both parties, and it had a good chance to become a law, even if Trump decided to veto it (this procedure has been elaborately described by The Bell).
The lobbyist recommends the big business which is not under sanctions and is not at risk of falling under them, "to use the window of opportunity right now in order to improve cooperation between the countries – there won't be a better opportunity for that in the near future".
The Bell's interlocutor thinks that the perspectives of those businesspeople who have already fallen under sanctions and try to escape from the list, are not that bright. "The sanctions list has been based on a number of factors. Suspicion of collusion is only one of them", – he says. He also thinks that neither of the Russians included in the list will be deleted from it.
Sergey Glandin, attorneys at law Pen and Paper special adviser on sanctions law, points out that the Mueller Report is not of prejudicial importance due to its legal nature or applied American legislation, i.e. it cannot be a matter of reference in court in cases on deleting from the US sanctions list. Chances of the people mentioned in the sanctions list, also on the accusations of interference in the American elections background, against the OFAC in court, won't change: inclusion [in the sanctions list] refers to appealing against a decision, actions and inaction of the US administrative authorities, and the subjects of the grounds of these cases are different.
We will get a chance to test the grade of the anti-Russian attitude of the Congress already tomorrow – during the Senate hearings on the fifth anniversary of the conflict in Donbass.
Economists and currency analysts interviewed by The Bell are skeptical about the significance of the news in the Mueller Report for the rouble – it has risen by 60 kopecks to the dollar today, and almost recovered from the sharp drop on Friday. The Raiffeisen Bank analyst Denis Poryvai admits that if the consideration of the sanctions bills is delayed, the weakening of the rouble won't be so noticeable. The rouble has become stronger by 8% since the beginning of the year – from 70 ₽/$ in the end of December, to 64 ₽/$ by the middle of Match.
Anastasia Stogney